Brexit

On 23 June 2016, the United Kingdom (UK) held a referendum to decide the fate of its membership in the European Union (EU), a political and economic organisation of 28 countries in Europe. The results of the referendum were announced a day later, with a majority (51.9%) voting to leave the EU. Thereafter Brexit, the withdrawal of the UK from the EU, was set into motion. While Brexit had originally been scheduled to take place on 29 March 2019, 7am (SST), the EU has granted a postponement of Brexit to 12 April, which subsequently may be further postponed to 30 June.

With the referendum determining the UK’s departure from the EU, a slew of problems further confronting the UK thus emerged. Firstly, the problematic negotiation of the withdrawal deal that would determine the nature of Brexit. The first Brexit deal by Theresa May, Prime Minister of UK, was met with a 432 to 202 rejection by Parliament, an unprecedented defeat; the second was rejected 391 to 242. A third attempt at a vote was blocked by Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, on the grounds that there was no substantial change to the deal.

At the heart of the issue lies the ‘Irish Backstop’ concerning Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK and shares a border with the Republic of Ireland, a member state of the EU. Decades of sectarian violence between the two known as ‘The Troubles’ only ended with the Good Friday Agreement signed in 1998, where the removal of checkpoints was key to the agreement. Yet, the normalisation of peace since the signing of the agreement would be disrupted by Brexit, which would necessitate the reestablishment of a ‘hard border’ between Northern Ireland and Ireland. As products would have to be subjected to inspections before they cross the border, checkpoints and guard posts would have to be constructed, possibly causing inflammation of tensions. Thus, an open border with free movement of goods would be critical for maintaining the fragile peace.

To avoid a physical barrier between Northern Ireland and Ireland, Theresa May’s deal included the provision of the Irish backstop. In the event that no long-term trade deal with the EU has been reached by the end of the transition period, the backstop would take effect and UK would remain in the EU customs union, hence removing the need for border checks. This solution was met with contention as it would mean the UK could potentially be bound to the EU customs union indefinitely under the circumstances that UK does not negotiate a permanent trade deal with the EU by the end of the transition period. Therefore, the UK would continue to be bound by EU standards, with little control over its own trade laws despite having already left the EU.

With negotiations over Brexit at a deadlock just days before it was officially scheduled to take place on 29 March, Theresa May formally wrote to the EU to request a postponement of Brexit, which was granted conditionally by the EU. Should Theresa May’s deal successfully pass through Parliament, they would allow for an extension for Brexit till 22 May. It did not, as on 29 March, the third vote failed to pass by 58 votes, despite Theresa May’s offer to step down should the deal pass. As a result, the UK would only have until 12 April to consider its options – to either leave without a deal, or to request a longer extension to attempt another deal through Parliament. For another extension to be possible, the EU mandates that the UK would have to indicate that it will be taking part in the European Parliament elections in May, something which Theresa May has previously expressed her reluctance in. However, in view of the impasse in Parliament, Theresa May has requested a further extension of Brexit to 30 June. Should a deal pass before 23 May, there would be no need for the UK to participate in European Parliament. If not, Theresa May has stated that the UK would be prepared to field candidates for the elections.

Moving forward, the UK would be seeking alternative plans for Brexit’s withdrawal agreement. A series of indicative votes were held on 27 March and 1 April in an attempt to reach a consensus on the deal, but both rounds of voting failed to garner a clear majority for the options listed. The options that came the closest included joining a customs union with the EU, that lost by three votes, as well as the confirmatory referendum, that was defeated by 12 votes.

The latter is an alternative that has been gaining traction amongst members of the public. With Parliament at an impasse and the threat of a “no-deal” Brexit looming, the possibility of holding a second referendum to reaffirm the results of the first has sparked much public interest. On 23 March, hundreds of thousands took to the street in the Put It To The People March, demanding a second referendum. A petition on Parliament’s website calling for the UK to remain in the EU has gained more than 6 million signatures. Yet, an official response by the government that rejects this possibility, as well as the lack of support in Parliament, makes it unlikely that a second referendum would take place.

Thus far, the fate of Brexit still remains largely uncertain, and we observe its proceedings with great interest.

References:

Brexit: MPs reject May's EU withdrawal agreement. (2019, March 30). BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com

Brexit: Theresa May to formally ask for delay. (2019, March 19). BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com

Brexit: Theresa May's deal is voted down in historic Commons defeat. (2019, January 15). BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com

Brexit: UK asks EU for further extension until 30 June. (2019, April 05). BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com

Brexit march: Million joined Brexit protest, organisers say. (2019, March 23). BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47678763

Castle, S. (2019, January 21). Plan B for Brexit Looks a Lot Like the Defeated Plan A. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com

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Elgot, J., Mason, R., Boffey, D., & Syal, R. (2019, March 19). The Guardian. Brexit: Constitutional chaos after third vote on deal blocked. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com

Erlanger, S. (2019, January 29). Theresa May Wants the E.U. to Renegotiate Brexit. The New York Times. Will It? Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com

Helm, T. (2019, March 23). As hundreds of thousands march in London, what next for Brexit? The Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com

How did my MP vote on Brexit indicative votes? (2019, April 01). BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com

O'Grady, S. (2019, January 31). The Good Friday Agreement ended decades of conflict. Ireland worries Brexit could unravel it. The Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com

Pérez-Peña, R. (2019, January 30). What Is the Irish Backstop, and Why Is It Holding Up Brexit? The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com

Tsang, A. (2019, January 30). The New York Times. The Post-Brexit Food Chain: 'This Is Really, Really Scary'. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com